Buffalo dominated on expected goals—5.40 to 1.95—meaning the Sabres generated vastly more dangerous chances. The 73–27 split reveals the chasm. The 3–2 shootout result was not representative.

The numbers confirm the gap. Buffalo held 65% of shot attempts (33–18 on goal), controlling where shots came from. Eight high-danger chances to Toronto's three amplified the disparity—not just volume, but quality. At 0.067 expected goals per shot, Buffalo was precise. Toronto's 0.051 rate meant survival required near-perfection. It didn't come.

Variance worked against Buffalo, then against Toronto. The Sabres underperformed their expected goals by 2.40, converting zero of eight high-danger chances—a squandered advantage. J. Woll (TOR) stole the show: 0.939 save percentage, 3.40 goals above expected, 31 saves on 33 shots. He stopped all eight high-danger attempts. A. Lyon (BUF) saved 16 of 18 and had no margin for error.

Rush play proved decisive. Buffalo scored twice on 35 rush chances. Toronto scored twice on 21, a higher rate that kept the Maple Leafs within a goal despite the underlying domination.

Alex Tuch's wrist shot from the doorstep in the shootout ended it—a finish earned by Buffalo's control. O. Power (BUF) logged 23:50 with a goal, anchoring the dominance. W. Nylander (TOR) and M. Knies (TOR) each assisted in roughly 20 minutes, their efforts insufficient against the gap.

The model projects a 2.4–2.7 goal game with Buffalo at 56% win probability.

Buffalo's advantage flows from process. The Sabres control 50.0% of expected goals at 5v5 and 49.0% of Corsi, dictating territorial play. Toronto manages only 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi, a possession deficit that typically correlates with losses.

But the Sabres' PDO is 1.020—inflated luck that usually corrects downward. Toronto's 1.002 sits neutral. Buffalo has accumulated variance they're likely to shed, which compresses their theoretical edge in a close matchup.

Auston Matthews is Toronto's primary weapon: 1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 13 assists, 1 high-danger goal, 10.6% shooting. John Tavares adds secondary scoring at 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals, 24 assists, 3 high-danger goals, and 12.4% shooting.

Jason Zucker leads Buffalo's offense at 1.07 xG/60, 14 goals, 14 assists, 6 high-danger goals, and 15.1% shooting. That high-danger goal total stands out—Zucker is converting prime chances at an exceptional rate. Josh Doan contributes 1.01 xG/60 with 15 goals, 18 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 11.5% shooting.

Defensively, both teams show zero high-danger and zero rebound goals in these metrics, suggesting either structured defense or a narrow sample. Toronto's defensive weak link is Bo Groulx; Buffalo's is Jack Quinn. Neither is profound, but each offers a matchup target.

The central issue: Buffalo dominates territory while running hot on PDO. The 56% lean assumes their process sustains while Toronto's efficiency regresses. If PDO corrects and Matthews remains dangerous, the gap narrows. If the Sabres hold territorial control, they win the 2.4–2.7 game. Toronto isn't a lock to lose—they're an underdog in a matchup decided by whether Buffalo keeps their edge or luck does the work.