Toronto had more high-danger chances (7-5) but scored zero on them and lost 3-1. The difference was I. Sorokin, who stopped 2.4 goals above expected and saved all 7 high-danger shots he faced. Exceptional goaltending decided the game.

The broader structure still favored the Islanders. They controlled 56% of 5v5 expected goals (4.20–3.35) and out-attempted the Leafs 34–27. New York's power play was dominant—2 goals on 15 shots (1.23 xG). But none of that mattered as much as Sorokin's night. The Leafs created quality chances; they simply could not bury them.

J. Woll played well for Toronto. He made 31 of 34 saves (0.912 SV%) and exceeded his expected performance by 1.20 goals. That would win most nights. Not this one.

The projection model calls this a dead heat: 2.6 goals for each side, with the Maple Leafs at exactly 50% win probability.

The Islanders arrive hotter, at 7-3-0 over their last 10. Toronto is underwater at -15 goal differential through the same stretch.

At 5v5, the Islanders hold a 48.0% expected-goals share to Toronto's 46.0%, and dominate territorial play at 49.0% Corsi to 45.0%. The Leafs' puck luck is keeping them afloat: their season PDO sits at 1.002 compared to the Islanders' 0.993, meaning Toronto's scoring at a sustainable advantage despite driving fewer chances.

The Islanders center their attack around Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. Lee generates 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes with 9 goals and 20 assists, though his 6.4% shooting rate suggests regression; his 2 high-danger goals show he finds premium ice. Horvat carries 18 goals at 12.8% shooting, though his 0.87 xG/60 means he's converting at an unsustainable rate; he's also posted 3 high-danger goals.

Toronto counters with Auston Matthews at 1.10 xG/60, carrying 17 goals and 13 assists on a 10.6% shot rate with 1 high-danger goal. John Tavares runs 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals and 24 assists, also with 3 high-danger goals.

Both teams sit at 0% on high-danger and rebound goals—suggesting cautious play in dangerous areas. The Islanders' defensive weak link is Alexander Romanov; Toronto's is Bo Groulx. Neither has built margin elsewhere, so execution on the chances that matter decides this.