The Islanders won the scoreboard battle 1-0, but the underlying play told a different story. The Blue Jackets dominated shot attempts 26–22 and built a 2.45–2.30 expected goals edge — yet left with nothing.

The gap reveals I. Sorokin's masterclass. He stopped 2.45 more goals than expected, a save rate of 1.000 on 26 chances. The Blue Jackets generated four high-danger looks to New York's two; Sorokin turned them all away. The Blue Jackets out-created the Islanders and still lost, the inverse of what usually happens.

New York's contribution to the disparity: disciplined suppression. The Islanders controlled 46% of shot attempts and limited high-danger work, even as the Blue Jackets pressed. J. Greaves made 21 saves on 22 shots — respectable, but Sorokin's performance overshadowed it. The Blue Jackets underperformed their expected goals by 2.45; the Islanders by 1.30.

B. Horvat decided the result early. His snap shot from the high slot, at 1:25 of the first period, was the only goal New York needed. A. Lee and A. Boqvist provided assists, though neither appeared to drive play beyond their setup touches.

The Blue Jackets crashed the net effectively and generated four rebound chances, none converted. That sequence—opportunity without finish—defined their night. Better chances, fewer breaks.

The Islanders' system held firm. New York didn't need to dominate to win; Sorokin and restraint were enough.

The model projects a 2.7-2.6 CBJ win with the Blue Jackets at 51% probability—this is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Columbus holds the form edge. The Blue Jackets are 7-0-3 in their last 10, while the Islanders sit at -6 goal differential over the same stretch. On the season, Columbus owns the underlying play: 52.0% xG and 51.0% Corsi, both well ahead of New York's 48.0% and 49.0%. The PDO gap—Columbus at 1.003, New York at 0.993—hints at variance, but the Blue Jackets' edge in actual play-driving is real.

Both I. Sorokin and E. Merzlikins are on back-to-backs. Watch for tired performances or a surprise backup.

For Columbus, Boone Jenner is the engine: 0.98 xG/60, 11 goals, 21 assists, with 2 high-danger chances and a 9.6% shot rate. Mathieu Olivier's 0.89 xG/60 understates his impact—12 goals on just 1 high-danger chance, riding a 13.3% shooting rate that won't last. New York counters with Anders Lee at 1.20 xG/60, the best on either side, combining 9 goals and 20 assists on a 6.4% shot rate, though only 2 from high danger. Bo Horvat has been the finisher: 18 goals on 0.87 xG/60, with 3 high-danger tallies and a 12.8% shot rate driving his outperformance.

The defensive weak links are Conor Garland for Columbus and Alexander Romanov for New York. Columbus owns the play, but New York's scoring leverage—Lee's volume and Horvat's finish—is real. At 51%, the Blue Jackets deserve the edge, but this is a legitimate flip.