The Senators' 67% expected-goal advantage (3.46–1.70) should have delivered a blowout, but they won just 2–1. The 1.46-goal shortfall came down to I. Shesterkin, who stopped 1.46 goals above expected.

The Senators outshot the Rangers 33–10 and had superior shot quality (0.069 xG per attempt versus 0.046), yet couldn't finish. They went 0 for 6 on high-danger chances while Shesterkin stood at 100% SV on those attempts. J. Reimer was sharp (0.900 SV%, +0.70 vs expected).

The Senators converted where it mattered: the rush. They scored twice on 29 chances. Conor Sheary's wrist shot from the doorstep (P3, 07:03) proved the difference.

The model projects a 2.5-2.3 game with the Senators at 54% win probability — as close to a pick'em as the numbers offer.

Ottawa controls the underlying play. The Senators dominate 5v5 expected goals at 56.0% to 48.0%, and push territory at 53.0% Corsi. This should matter. The complication is shot luck: Ottawa's PDO sits at 0.993 while New York sits at 1.009. The Senators are running cold on quality, the Rangers hot. Regression favors Ottawa eventually. In one game, it cuts both ways.

Then there's the goaltending. D. Garand faces the Rangers on a back-to-back. Watch for a backup start or a tired starter — either scenario introduces variance.

Brady Tkachuk leads Ottawa's offense at 1.19 xG/60 with 11 goals and 20 assists, backed by 2 hard-on-goals and 7.5% shooting that will regress. Dylan Cozens complements him at 1.00 xG/60 with 13 goals, 15 assists, 1 hard-on-goal, and 9.5% shooting — similarly positioned to climb.

The Rangers counter with Adam Sykora at 0.91 xG/60 on just 3 goals and 1 assist, but at an unsustainable 20.0% shooting rate. Gabe Perreault carries 0.79 xG/60 with 8 goals and 11 assists, 2 hard-on-goals, and 13.1% shooting — also inflated.

Both teams sit at 0% hard-on-goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate. Nick Jensen is Ottawa's defensive weak link; Vincent Iorio is New York's.

Ottawa has the superior underlying play. But Garand's back-to-back and New York's hot hands inject enough uncertainty to make this a genuine toss-up.