Predators pull away from the Sharks
The Predators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.64–2.44 and won anyway.
The underlying story
Nashville rolled past San Jose 6-3 despite ceding 3.64 expected goals to 2.44. The Sharks dominated the underlying metrics—controlling 60% of xG at 5v5—yet lost decisively. This was a heist.
The Predators scored from spots the model abhors. They converted 4 goals from low-danger locations and another 5 off the rush on 22 chances. A. Nedeljkovic's line told the full story: facing 19 shots and 3.64 xG, he allowed 6, finishing at 0.684 SV%—3.56 goals worse than expected. J. Saros did the opposite, stopping 27 of 30 for a 0.900 SV% (+0.64 vs. expected).
The Predators held just 39% of shot attempts (19-30 on goal), yet high-danger chances split even at 3-3. Will Smith's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 01:40) marked the inflection point—where Nashville's opportunism and San Jose's inability to finish diverged.
The Sharks created three rebound opportunities and converted zero. Nashville's rush-play efficiency—5 of 22—is unsustainable. The Predators played the cleaner game.
The danger ladder
NSH went 4-for-32 from low danger on 0.60 expected goals — 3.4 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
SJS finished -0.6 against expected, NSH +3.6 — A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) allowed 3.6 more goals than expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 1-for-27, NSH 3-for-17. NSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.
- NSH won despite being outplayed by xG (40%). Goaltending or finishing carried them.
- A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) gave up 3.6 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- NSH scored 4 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
- NSH was lethal off the rush — 5 goals on 22 rush chances.
- SJS created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NSH outperformed their expected goals by 3.6 — elite finishing or lucky bounces.