Bruins run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Bruins won 4-3 in a shootout, but the underlying metrics suggest they could have won more decisively. They controlled 70% of expected goals (6.03–2.62), yet two dynamics kept the game closer than the data warranted. J. Greaves (CBJ) was exceptional, saving 3.03 goals above expected on 36 saves. Boston underperformed its xG by 2.03 goals despite generating the superior chances.
Columbus managed 39% of shot attempts at 5v5, which constrained their offensive ceiling. Boston had 14 high-danger chances compared to the Blue Jackets' 2—a quality gap that essentially decided the outcome. The Bruins also owned a shot quality edge: 0.071 xG per shot versus 0.053, which compounded their volume advantage.
Three players drove the result. P. Zacha (BOS) scored twice with an assist in 18:07. V. Arvidsson (BOS) collected three assists in 15:14. C. McAvoy (BOS) added a goal and assist while logging 26:09.
Columbus found one reliable outlet: the rush. The Blue Jackets converted 3 of 23 rush chances, an efficient rate. Boston relied less on transition—2 goals on 37 rush attempts—but the Bruins won the 5v5 battle that determined the game.
The danger ladder
BOS went 1-for-14 from high danger on 3.60 expected goals — 2.6 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
BOS finished -2.0 against expected, CBJ +0.4 — J. Greaves (CBJ) saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-26, CBJ 2-for-15. CBJ scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- CBJ had the shot volume but the chances weren't dangerous.
- J. Greaves (CBJ) stopped 3.0 goals above expected.
- Open game — 16 high-danger chances combined (CBJ 2, BOS 14).
- BOS had the higher quality looks — 0.071 xG/shot vs 0.053.
- CBJ was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 23 rush chances.
- BOS was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 37 rush chances.
- BOS created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- BOS underperformed xG by 3.0 — wasted quality chances.
- J. Greaves (CBJ) saved 3.0 goals above expected — stole the show.
- J. Greaves was a wall on HD chances — 93% SV on 14 high-danger shots.
- BOS power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 18 PP shots (2.18 xG).