The Stars edged the Blues 2-1 in a game the underlying numbers called close to even — expected goals split 2.95–2.75, a slight edge to the Blues.

The numbers behind the result. The Blues held 46% of shot attempts (24–28 on goal). Expected goals finished 2.95–2.75 (52–48% split), and high-danger chances went 3–3.

Variance watch. The Blues underperformed their xG by 1.95 goals; the Stars underperformed theirs by 0.75.

Turning point. Jack Becker's wrist shot from the high slot (P2, 18:29).

Goaltending

• R. Poirier (DAL): 11/12 saves, 0.917 SV%
• B. Halverson (DAL): 12/12 saves, 1.000 SV% (+1.47 vs expected)
• G. Romanov (STL): 10/10 saves, 1.000 SV% (+0.98 vs expected)
• J. Binnington (STL): 16/18 saves, 0.889 SV%

Storylines

• B. Halverson (DAL) stopped 1.5 goals above expected.
• DAL was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 20 rush chances.
• STL created 4 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
• STL underperformed xG by 1.9 — wasted quality chances.
• R. Poirier (DAL) saved 1.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
• B. Halverson (DAL) saved 3.0 goals above expected — stole the show.
• G. Romanov (STL) saved 2.8 goals above expected — stole the show.

Final: DAL 2 – STL 1

Data: NHL API, MoneyPuck xG model

The model projects a 3.0–3.0 tie with Dallas at 51% win probability—essentially a coin flip. The underlying play favors the Stars, but their shooting luck creates risk on the other side.

Dallas owns 5v5 play. The Stars generate 52.1% xG against St. Louis's 48.7%, a comfortable edge in shot quality and volume. That advantage is real and repeatable. But Dallas is running hot: a 1.024 PDO suggests the team is converting at a rate above its expected rate. That slack eventually tightens.

The Blues counter by neutralizing Jason Robertson. Robertson is Dallas's engine—0.96 xG/60, 25 goals, 2 high-danger tallies, and a 12.4% shooting rate that suggests he's both efficient and unsustainable. Locking him down is St. Louis's most direct path to an upset.

Dallas, in turn, targets Jimmy Snuggerud. Snuggerud posts 0.86 xG/60, 15 goals, and 2 high-danger goals. He's the Blues' highest-leverage offensive threat, and the Stars will game-plan to keep him quiet.

Beyond the marquee matchups: Michael Bunting (0.83 xG/60, 8G, 7.6% shooting) is Dallas's secondary offensive threat worth monitoring. For St. Louis, Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG/60, 13G, 10.8% shooting) offers consistent depth scoring.

Dallas has a defensive liability in Tyler Myers. He's bleeding chances—2.79 xGA/60 with 53 high-danger shots against this season. That's the Blues' softest target for sustained pressure.

The underlying metrics split narrowly otherwise. St. Louis holds 48.3% Corsi% to Dallas's 47.1%—essentially even in shot volume. The Blues' 1.000 PDO sits right at expectation, meaning they're converting at rates their shot quality earns. If Dallas regresses even slightly on its PDO advantage, St. Louis's steadier process could prevail.

The verdict: Dallas should win this matchup on process. The Stars' 52.1% xG share is the kind of edge that compounds. But a one-game sample is noisy, and Dallas's 51% win probability acknowledges the volatility. St. Louis can win by shutting down Robertson, exploiting Myers, and executing their own 48.7% xG pace cleanly. The fact that this projects as a coin flip, despite Dallas's process advantage, is really a statement about how much variance one game contains.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.