WARNINGCHIfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
82
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Chicago Blackhawks
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): CHI 2 - 3 MIN (OT) — an overtime loss to the Wild.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Blackhawks: a outshot/run-and-gun team (32.1% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
29
Wins (all)
54
Losses (all)
215
Goals for
278
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · CHI @ MIN · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCHIMIN
Offense
▸Basis
CHI Created 1.84 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.44 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.75 xG).
MIN Created 3.89 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.82 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.70 xG).
D+
68
A
94
Defense
▸Basis
CHI Allowed 3.89 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.82 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.70 xG).
MIN Allowed 1.84 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.44 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.75 xG).
F
56
B-
82
Transition
▸Basis
CHI Rush shots 18–29, rush xG 1.75–2.70 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
MIN Rush shots 29–18, rush xG 2.70–1.75 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D-
60
A-
90
Special teams
▸Basis
CHI 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.34 PP xG.
MIN 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.55 PP xG.
F
51
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis
CHI +0.89 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.
MIN -0.16 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.
B
84
C
73
Discipline
▸Basis
CHI Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
MIN Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CHI Finishing +0.16 goals vs xG plus +0.89 GSAx of save luck = +1.05 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
MIN Finishing -0.89 goals vs xG plus -0.16 GSAx of save luck = -1.05 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
83
D+
67
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHCHIfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 18 rush shots worth 1.75 xG.
66
IMP
WARNINGCHIfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.34 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
49
IMP
WARNINGCHIfancoach
Rebound control was shaky
Allowed 6 rebound chances worth 0.74 xG (1 converted).
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
48
IMP
STRENGTHCHIfancoach
A. Soderblom tilted the crease
A. Soderblom stopped 23 of 26 (0.885), +0.89 goals above expected.
46
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGCHIfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
82
IMP
WARNINGCHIfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.34 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
49
IMP
WARNINGCHIfancoach
Rebound control was shaky
Allowed 6 rebound chances worth 0.74 xG (1 converted).
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
48
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHCHIfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 18 rush shots worth 1.75 xG.
66
IMP
STRENGTHCHIfancoach
A. Soderblom tilted the crease
A. Soderblom stopped 23 of 26 (0.885), +0.89 goals above expected.
46
IMP
Regression watch
- Team finishing is -10 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
45/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 18th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
39,578
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
17
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
16
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
2,525 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d53
2d12
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 18 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,797 travel miles
Feb 28 – Mar 8
6 games in 10 days with 3,783 travel miles
Nov 25 – Dec 4
6 games in 10 days with 3,391 travel miles
Oct 29 – Nov 7
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach - 03
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
Rebound control was shakycoach