Chicago Blackhawks
5-on-5 · model-estimatedBlackhawks: a outshot/run-and-gun team (32.1% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (32.1% xG share).
Team finishing is -10 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- Connor Bedard
- Tyler Bertuzzi
- Frank Nazar
- Ilya Mikheyev
- Ryan Donato
- Oliver Moore
- Nick Lardis
- Wyatt Kaiser
- Sam Rinzel
- Andre Burakovsky
- Teuvo Teravainen
- Louis Crevier
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Ryan Greene
- Matt Grzelcyk
- Sam Lafferty
- Landon Slaggert
- Artyom Levshunov
- Alex Vlasic
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight | 55 | 90.210 | — | +0.0 |
| Arvid Soderblom | 26 | 87.980 | 75.000 | +0.3 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor BedardC | 68 | 16.4 | +62.70 | +2.8 |
| Tyler BertuzziL | 78 | 14.6 | +73.70 | +2.8 |
| Frank NazarC | 65 | 13.4 | +45.30 | +1.1 |
| Ilya MikheyevR | 76 | 14.5 | +46.80 | +1.1 |
| Ryan DonatoC | 81 | 12.9 | +42.10 | +0.8 |
| Andre BurakovskyL | 74 | 13.7 | +31.60 | +0.6 |
| Oliver MooreC | 50 | 11.2 | +45.00 | +0.6 |
| Nick LardisL | 41 | 11.0 | +45.80 | +0.5 |
| Teuvo TeravainenC | 74 | 12.3 | +23.90 | +0.3 |
| Louis CrevierD | 77 | 14.9 | +39.30 | +0.3 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 18th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 18 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 9 days with 3,797 travel miles
Feb 28 – Mar 8
6 games in 10 days with 3,783 travel miles
Nov 25 – Dec 4
6 games in 10 days with 3,391 travel miles
Oct 29 – Nov 7