STRENGTHEDMfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.33 xG.
85
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Edmonton Oilers
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): WPG 2 - 5 EDM — a win over the Jets.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 4 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.33 xG.
Oilers: a possession-driving team (52.7% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
42
Wins (all)
41
Losses (all)
287
Goals for
271
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · WPG @ EDM · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionWPGEDM
Offense
▸Basis
WPG Created 2.88 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 21 rush shots (1.84 xG).
EDM Created 3.21 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.73 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.33 xG).
B-
80
B
85
Defense
▸Basis
WPG Allowed 3.21 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.73 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.33 xG).
EDM Allowed 2.88 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 21 rush shots (1.84 xG).
D
65
C-
70
Transition
▸Basis
WPG Rush shots 21–27, rush xG 1.84–2.33 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
EDM Rush shots 27–21, rush xG 2.33–1.84 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
67
B
83
Special teams
▸Basis
WPG 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.25 PP xG.
EDM 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.07 PP xG.
F
53
F
51
Goaltending
▸Basis
WPG -0.79 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
EDM +0.88 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
D+
67
B
84
Discipline
▸Basis
WPG Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
EDM Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
WPG Finishing -0.88 goals vs xG plus -0.79 GSAx of save luck = -1.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
EDM Finishing +1.79 goals vs xG plus +0.88 GSAx of save luck = +2.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
D-
62
A
96
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGEDMfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 1.84 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
65
IMP
LUCKEDMfangm
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 5 on 3.21 xG — +1.79 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
62
IMP
STRENGTHEDMfan
E. Bouchard led the way
4A in 25:09 — the game's first star.
58
IMP
TACTICALEDMfan
The moment it turned
Colton Dach's wrist shot from a sharp angle in P3 swung the game.
52
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGEDMfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 1.84 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
65
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHEDMfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.33 xG.
85
IMP
STRENGTHEDMfan
E. Bouchard led the way
4A in 25:09 — the game's first star.
58
IMP
STRENGTHEDMfancoach
T. Jarry tilted the crease
T. Jarry stopped 15 of 16 (0.938), +1.20 goals above expected.
51
IMP
STRENGTHEDMfan
R. Shea made a difference
1G 2A in 22:31 — the game's second star.
48
IMP
Regression watch
- PDO 0.981 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
- Stuart Skinner sv% 88.8% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
13/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 28th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
45,899
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
9
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,440 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d48
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 3,927 travel miles
Nov 15 – Nov 24
6 games in 11 days with 4,293 travel miles
Mar 31 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,074 travel miles
Oct 26 – Nov 5
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach