Edmonton Oilers
5-on-5 · model-estimatedOilers: a possession-driving team (52.7% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Drives 5v5 play (52.7% xG share).
- Elite top-end talent: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm.
- Leaky penalty kill (78% kill rate).
PDO 0.981 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Stuart Skinner sv% 88.8% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Connor McDavid
- Evan Bouchard
- Mattias Ekholm
- Leon Draisaitl
- Zach Hyman
- Max Jones
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- Vasily Podkolzin
- Jack Roslovic
- Matt Savoie
- Darnell Nurse
- Connor Murphy
- Trent Frederic
- Kasperi Kapanen
- Jason Dickinson
- Jake Walman
- Adam Henrique
- Curtis Lazar
- Colton Dach
- Josh Samanski
- David Tomasek
- Isaac Howard
- Ty Emberson
- Alec Regula
- Mattias Janmark
- Spencer Stastney
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | 50 | 88.790 | — | +0.0 |
| Tristan Jarry | 33 | 88.220 | 50.000 | +0.9 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavidC | 82 | 17.3 | +81.20 | +6.5 |
| Evan BouchardD | 82 | 18.3 | +80.60 | +4.8 |
| Leon DraisaitlC | 65 | 16.4 | +67.30 | +4.3 |
| Zach HymanL | 58 | 15.4 | +72.30 | +2.6 |
| Mattias EkholmD | 82 | 17.5 | +77.00 | +2.4 |
| Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC | 72 | 13.4 | +49.70 | +2.1 |
| Vasily PodkolzinR | 82 | 14.0 | +56.90 | +1.6 |
| Jack RoslovicC | 69 | 14.2 | +57.70 | +1.6 |
| Matt SavoieC | 82 | 12.2 | +52.70 | +1.4 |
| Darnell NurseD | 82 | 18.8 | +54.80 | +0.8 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 28th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 10 days with 3,927 travel miles
Nov 15 – Nov 24
6 games in 11 days with 4,293 travel miles
Mar 31 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,074 travel miles
Oct 26 – Nov 5