New Jersey Devils
5-on-5 · model-estimatedDevils: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (3 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (79% kill rate).
PDO 0.971 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Team finishing is -29 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Jacob Markstrom sv% 88.3% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Jack Hughes
- Dougie Hamilton
- Jesper Bratt
- Nico Hischier
- Timo Meier
- Luke Hughes
- Cody Glass
- Dawson Mercer
- Arseny Gritsyuk
- Connor Brown
- Simon Nemec
- Brenden Dillon
- Brett Pesce
- Colton White
- Johnathan Kovacevic
- Jonas Siegenthaler
- Lenni Hameenaho
- Nick Bjugstad
- Maxim Tsyplakov
- Stefan Noesen
- Juho Lammikko
- Paul Cotter
- Evgenii Dadonov
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom | 44 | 88.320 | — | +0.0 |
| Jake Allen | 37 | 90.400 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack HughesC | 61 | 17.0 | +75.90 | +3.6 |
| Jesper BrattL | 82 | 14.2 | +66.50 | +3.3 |
| Nico HischierC | 82 | 15.0 | +68.10 | +3.1 |
| Dougie HamiltonD | 77 | 17.2 | +81.00 | +2.3 |
| Timo MeierR | 77 | 15.5 | +69.20 | +2.2 |
| Dawson MercerC | 82 | 14.3 | +54.10 | +1.7 |
| Arseny GritsyukR | 66 | 13.6 | +55.90 | +1.3 |
| Luke HughesD | 68 | 19.2 | +60.80 | +1.3 |
| Cody GlassC | 70 | 12.1 | +62.70 | +1.3 |
| Connor BrownR | 75 | 13.7 | +42.90 | +1.3 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 8th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 41 even.
6 games in 9 days with 2,710 travel miles
Jan 23 – Jan 31
6 games in 12 days with 5,415 travel miles
Dec 27 – Jan 7
6 games in 11 days with 3,947 travel miles
Feb 13 – Feb 23