STRENGTHNYRfancoachgm
D. Garand stole it
D. Garand stopped 29 of 31 (0.935) — +2.77 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
88
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
New York Rangers
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Wed, Apr 152025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Wed, Apr 15): NYR 4 - 2 TBL — a win over the Lightning.
The model's top flag from that game: d. garand stole it — D. Garand stopped 29 of 31 (0.935) — +2.77 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Rangers: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
Season complete · final ledger
82
Games filed
34
Wins (all)
48
Losses (all)
238
Goals for
250
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · NYR @ TBL · Wed, Apr 15
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionNYRTBL
Offense
▸Basis
NYR Created 4.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (2.59 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.36 xG).
TBL Created 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (2.34 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.05 xG).
A+
100
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis
NYR Allowed 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (2.34 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.05 xG).
TBL Allowed 4.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.59 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.36 xG).
F
40
F
49
Transition
▸Basis
NYR Rush shots 21–29, rush xG 2.36–3.05 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
TBL Rush shots 29–21, rush xG 3.05–2.36 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D
64
B
86
Special teams
▸Basis
NYR 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.06 PP xG.
TBL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.31 PP xG.
A
95
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis
NYR +2.77 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.
TBL +0.08 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
A+
100
C
76
Discipline
▸Basis
NYR Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
TBL Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
NYR Finishing -0.08 goals vs xG plus +2.77 GSAx of save luck = +2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TBL Finishing -2.77 goals vs xG plus +0.08 GSAx of save luck = -2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A+
97
F
53
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGNYRfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 3.05 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
81
IMP
STRENGTHNYRfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.36 xG.
79
IMP
STRENGTHNYRfan
T. Kartye led the way
2G 1A in 15:05 — the game's first star.
54
IMP
TACTICALNYRfan
The moment it turned
Corey Perry's backhander from the top of the circles in P3 swung the game.
52
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGNYRfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 3.05 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
81
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHNYRfancoachgm
D. Garand stole it
D. Garand stopped 29 of 31 (0.935) — +2.77 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
88
IMP
STRENGTHNYRfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.36 xG.
79
IMP
STRENGTHNYRfan
T. Kartye led the way
2G 1A in 15:05 — the game's first star.
54
IMP
STRENGTHNYRfancoach
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 1.06 PP xG.
48
IMP
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
19/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 26th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
38,449
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,559 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d51
2d14
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 26 with fewer · 32 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,469 travel miles
Mar 6 – Mar 16
6 games in 12 days with 6,249 travel miles
Dec 29 – Jan 9
6 games in 12 days with 5,984 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 16
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach