New York Rangers
5-on-5 · model-estimatedRangers: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Adam Fox.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (80% kill rate).
- Adam Fox
- Mika Zibanejad
- Alexis Lafrenire
- J.T. Miller
- Vladislav Gavrikov
- Gabe Perreault
- Will Cuylle
- Matthew Robertson
- Conor Sheary
- Jonny Brodzinski
- Jaroslav Chmelar
- Adam Edstrom
- Scott Morrow
- Urho Vaakanainen
- Matt Rempe
- Vincent Trocheck
- Tye Kartye
- Taylor Raddysh
- Noah Laba
- Juuso Parssinen
- Will Borgen
- Vincent Iorio
- Braden Schneider
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | 51 | 91.160 | — | +0.0 |
| Jonathan Quick | 25 | 89.120 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika ZibanejadC | 81 | 14.8 | +62.50 | +3.3 |
| Adam FoxD | 55 | 18.7 | +87.90 | +2.9 |
| Alexis LafrenireL | 82 | 14.5 | +65.20 | +2.6 |
| J.T. MillerC | 68 | 14.3 | +61.60 | +2.2 |
| Vladislav GavrikovD | 82 | 19.6 | +69.00 | +1.8 |
| Vincent TrocheckC | 67 | 14.7 | +35.20 | +1.2 |
| Gabe PerreaultR | 49 | 14.4 | +60.20 | +1.1 |
| Will CuylleL | 82 | 13.2 | +41.90 | +1.1 |
| Matthew RobertsonD | 72 | 15.6 | +58.70 | +0.7 |
| Tye KartyeL | 64 | 10.5 | +36.60 | +0.6 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 26th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 26 with fewer · 32 even.
6 games in 11 days with 5,469 travel miles
Mar 6 – Mar 16
6 games in 12 days with 6,249 travel miles
Dec 29 – Jan 9
6 games in 12 days with 5,984 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 16