St. Louis Blues
5-on-5 · model-estimatedBlues: a balanced team (51.8% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Dylan Holloway.
- Leaky penalty kill (77% kill rate).
- Dylan Holloway
- Robert Thomas
- Jordan Kyrou
- Jimmy Snuggerud
- Jake Neighbours
- Philip Broberg
- Colton Parayko
- Tyler Tucker
- Pavel Buchnevich
- Pius Suter
- Cam Fowler
- Otto Stenberg
- Jonatan Berggren
- Nathan Walker
- Dalibor Dvorsky
- Oskar Sundqvist
- Jonathan Drouin
- Matthew Kessel
- Logan Mailloux
- Jack Finley
- Alexey Toropchenko
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer | 46 | 90.960 | — | +0.0 |
| Jordan Binnington | 41 | 87.330 | 66.670 | -0.5 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert ThomasC | 64 | 14.3 | +74.30 | +3.2 |
| Dylan HollowayL | 59 | 14.9 | +76.20 | +2.6 |
| Jordan KyrouR | 72 | 13.1 | +72.00 | +2.4 |
| Jimmy SnuggerudR | 70 | 14.0 | +66.80 | +2.3 |
| Jake NeighboursL | 69 | 12.7 | +67.70 | +1.7 |
| Pavel BuchnevichL | 81 | 13.2 | +49.90 | +1.7 |
| Philip BrobergD | 81 | 18.8 | +60.50 | +1.3 |
| Pius SuterC | 64 | 12.7 | +53.80 | +1.1 |
| Colton ParaykoD | 77 | 18.8 | +67.10 | +1.0 |
| Tyler TuckerD | 69 | 13.2 | +72.90 | +0.9 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 6th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 23 with fewer · 37 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,112 travel miles
Feb 12 – Feb 21
6 games in 10 days with 3,831 travel miles
Dec 27 – Jan 5
6 games in 9 days with 2,806 travel miles
Mar 20 – Mar 28