WARNINGTORfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
70
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Toronto Maple Leafs
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): MTL 4 - 1 TOR — a loss to the Canadiens.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Maple Leafs: a outshot/run-and-gun team (42.6% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
84
Games filed
32
Wins (all)
52
Losses (all)
257
Goals for
307
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · MTL @ TOR · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionMTLTOR
Offense
▸Basis
MTL Created 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).
TOR Created 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).
B+
89
B-
80
Defense
▸Basis
MTL Allowed 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).
TOR Allowed 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).
C-
70
D-
61
Transition
▸Basis
MTL Rush shots 23–26, rush xG 1.76–2.03 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
TOR Rush shots 26–23, rush xG 2.03–1.76 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C-
71
C+
79
Special teams
▸Basis
MTL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.27 PP xG.
TOR 1-for-6 on the power play (17%; league ≈21%) with 1.32 PP xG.
F
52
C
73
Goaltending
▸Basis
MTL +1.91 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
TOR +0.64 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
A
94
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis
MTL Took 7 penalties for 17 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.
TOR Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 7 for 17 on the other side.
D-
60
A-
90
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
MTL Finishing +0.36 goals vs xG plus +1.91 GSAx of save luck = +2.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TOR Finishing -1.91 goals vs xG plus +0.64 GSAx of save luck = -1.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A
93
D
65
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKTORfangm
Cold finishing night
Scored 1 on 2.91 xG — -1.91 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
64
IMP
STRENGTHTORfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG.
57
IMP
LUCKTORfangm
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.953 — the bounces went against them tonight.
49
IMP
STRENGTHTORfancoach
Power play cashed in
1-for-6 on the power play (17%) on 1.32 PP xG.
48
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGTORfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
70
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHTORfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG.
57
IMP
STRENGTHTORfancoach
Power play cashed in
1-for-6 on the power play (17%) on 1.32 PP xG.
48
IMP
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB-avg 80→ FLAT
DefenseD-avg 52▲ IMPROVING
TransitionC+avg 65▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsCavg 100▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingB-avg 76▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineA-avg 60▲ IMPROVING
LuckDavg 77▼ DECLINING
TOR latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Regression watch
- Team finishing is +10 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
7/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 30th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
37,460
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
13
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
7
Longest road trip
6,053 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d46
2d20
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
17 games with more rest than the opponent · 16 with fewer · 48 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 4,309 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13
6 games in 13 days with 5,327 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 7
6 games in 12 days with 4,596 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 17
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach