Toronto Maple Leafs
5-on-5 · model-estimatedMaple Leafs: a outshot/run-and-gun team (42.6% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (42.6% xG share).
Team finishing is +10 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- William Nylander
- John Tavares
- Auston Matthews
- Morgan Rielly
- Matias Maccelli
- Nicholas Robertson
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson
- Dakota Joshua
- Jake McCabe
- Steven Lorentz
- Troy Stecher
- Matthew Knies
- Easton Cowan
- Max Domi
- Jacob Quillan
- Calle Jarnkrok
- Philippe Myers
- Brandon Carlo
- Simon Benoit
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll | 39 | 89.920 | — | +0.0 |
| Anthony Stolarz | 26 | 89.270 | 66.670 | -0.1 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William NylanderR | 65 | 15.4 | +62.30 | +3.3 |
| John TavaresC | 82 | 14.4 | +70.20 | +3.2 |
| Auston MatthewsC | 60 | 15.8 | +64.10 | +2.3 |
| Matthew KniesL | 79 | 14.1 | +38.30 | +1.8 |
| Morgan RiellyD | 78 | 17.5 | +68.40 | +1.7 |
| Matias MaccelliL | 71 | 12.5 | +55.10 | +1.6 |
| Nicholas RobertsonL | 78 | 11.3 | +57.40 | +1.3 |
| Oliver Ekman-LarssonD | 78 | 17.8 | +51.10 | +1.2 |
| Dakota JoshuaC | 55 | 11.3 | +51.00 | +0.7 |
| Easton CowanR | 66 | 12.8 | +35.10 | +0.7 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 30th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
17 games with more rest than the opponent · 16 with fewer · 48 even.
6 games in 11 days with 4,309 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13
6 games in 13 days with 5,327 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 7
6 games in 12 days with 4,596 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 17