Vegas Golden Knights
5-on-5 · model-estimatedGolden Knights: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 0.983 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Akira Schmid sv% 89.3% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Jack Eichel
- Mark Stone
- Shea Theodore
- Mitch Marner
- Pavel Dorofeyev
- Ivan Barbashev
- Tomas Hertl
- Noah Hanifin
- Braeden Bowman
- Ben Hutton
- Kaedan Korczak
- Brayden McNabb
- Rasmus Andersson
- Brett Howden
- Jeremy Lauzon
- Alexander Holtz
- Brandon Saad
- Cole Smith
- Colton Sissons
- Reilly Smith
- Keegan Kolesar
- Nic Dowd
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid | 34 | 89.250 | — | +0.0 |
| Adin Hill | 27 | 87.050 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack EichelC | 74 | 15.2 | +85.80 | +4.6 |
| Mark StoneR | 60 | 13.8 | +87.10 | +3.7 |
| Mitch MarnerR | 81 | 14.1 | +66.50 | +3.6 |
| Pavel DorofeyevR | 82 | 13.6 | +69.50 | +3.1 |
| Ivan BarbashevL | 82 | 15.0 | +71.70 | +3.0 |
| Tomas HertlC | 82 | 12.7 | +72.00 | +2.6 |
| Shea TheodoreD | 70 | 18.9 | +86.40 | +2.5 |
| Rasmus AnderssonD | 81 | 18.0 | +58.10 | +1.8 |
| Noah HanifinD | 71 | 19.5 | +69.90 | +1.4 |
| Braeden BowmanR | 54 | 12.6 | +62.40 | +1.1 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 31st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 18 with fewer · 41 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,452 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 15
6 games in 12 days with 5,784 travel miles
Jan 9 – Jan 20
6 games in 10 days with 4,054 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4