Washington Capitals
5-on-5 · model-estimatedCapitals: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 1.018 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Team finishing is -10 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- Jakob Chychrun
- Alex Ovechkin
- Tom Wilson
- Aliaksei Protas
- Ethen Frank
- Hendrix Lapierre
- Dylan Strome
- Ryan Leonard
- Justin Sourdif
- Connor McMichael
- Anthony Beauvillier
- Rasmus Sandin
- Pierre-Luc Dubois
- Martin Fehrvry
- Trevor van Riemsdyk
- Matt Roy
- Timothy Liljegren
- Declan Chisholm
- Brandon Duhaime
- David Kampf
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | 58 | 91.180 | — | +0.0 |
| Charlie Lindgren | 21 | 87.870 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob ChychrunD | 80 | 18.8 | +74.40 | +3.1 |
| Alex OvechkinL | 82 | 12.3 | +71.10 | +3.0 |
| Tom WilsonR | 72 | 13.6 | +68.00 | +2.9 |
| Aliaksei ProtasL | 76 | 14.9 | +62.50 | +2.3 |
| Dylan StromeC | 80 | 13.9 | +46.80 | +1.9 |
| Ryan LeonardR | 75 | 11.8 | +49.60 | +1.6 |
| Justin SourdifC | 78 | 13.2 | +55.40 | +1.4 |
| Connor McMichaelL | 78 | 12.7 | +48.90 | +1.4 |
| Ethen FrankR | 62 | 10.6 | +64.50 | +1.1 |
| Anthony BeauvillierR | 82 | 13.8 | +50.50 | +1.1 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 13th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 11 days with 5,215 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 12
6 games in 10 days with 3,370 travel miles
Mar 1 – Mar 10
6 games in 13 days with 5,511 travel miles
Jan 22 – Feb 3