Anaheim won 5-2, but Detroit nearly won on paper. Expected goals favored the Red Wings 4.39 to 4.24—a structure that should've protected them. The Ducks escaped a victory they didn't fully earn.

L. Dostal stole the game. The Ducks' goaltender stopped 2.4 goals above expected, converting Anaheim's defensive liability into saves. Detroit underperformed their 4.39 xG by 2.39 goals, a collapse especially damaging because they created eight high-danger chances to Anaheim's three. When a team generates the better looks and still loses by three, goaltending usually takes the blame—and J. Gibson's 0.871 save percentage (27 of 31) should shoulder it.

Anaheim's efficiency off the rush masked their underlying disadvantage: three goals on 29 chances versus Detroit's two on identical volume. Detroit's structural advantage evaporated in the rebound zone, where they generated six opportunities but converted zero—a wasteful pattern that defined their night.

L. Carlsson led Anaheim with one goal and three assists in 15:44. T. Terry contributed two goals and an assist across 17:17. C. Gauthier added two assists in 18:21. Detroit's skaters created; Anaheim's finished.

The model projects a 2.5 to 2.8 goal game favoring Anaheim at 55% win probability.

Anaheim's case rests on sustained process. The Ducks own 52.0% of expected goals at 5v5 against Detroit's 49.0%, backed by 52.0% Corsi — a pattern reflecting territorial dominance and quality shot generation.

Both teams are underperforming luck. Anaheim's PDO is 0.981, Detroit's 0.985, meaning both are running cold relative to their shot quality and goaltending. The model assumes Anaheim's edge in chance creation will overcome this variance.

Alex DeBrincat leads Detroit at 0.88 xG/60, with 17 goals, 28 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 9.0% shooting. Marco Kasper contributes 0.81 xG/60, 7 goals, 8 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and 6.1% shooting.

Beckett Sennecke operates for Anaheim at 1.03 xG/60, posting 20 goals, 19 assists, 8 high-danger goals, and 13.5% shooting. Cutter Gauthier similarly contributes at 0.99 xG/60, with 25 goals, 16 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 12.9% conversion.

Defensively, Axel Sandin-Pellikka is Detroit's weak link, while Mason McTavish fills that role for Anaheim. The model's lean assumes Anaheim sustains its territorial advantage long enough to win despite both teams' current PDO cold snap.