The Devils won despite an embarrassment of riches they couldn't cash: 6 high-danger chances, 0 conversions. Yet New Jersey still beat Chicago 4–3 in overtime, suggesting efficiency elsewhere mattered more than volume in the slot.

The expected goals backed the result. The Devils controlled 58% of 5v5 xG (3.93 to 2.86), indicating genuine superiority in shot quality.

But Chicago kept the volume battle competitive. The Blackhawks held 35% of shot attempts—20 to 37—a workable deficit that meant the game stayed physical and contested. They were also sharp off the rush: 3 goals on 24 chances, an efficiency that nearly carried them through. New Jersey scored 3 on the rush as well, but needed 32 attempts to get there.

Simon Nemec's wrist shot from the high slot ended it at 3:28 of overtime.

Goaltending wasn't decisive. S. Knight was sensational: 33 saves on 37 shots, a 0.892 save percentage. J. Markstrom was solid: 17 for 20, 0.850. Knight was better, and yet New Jersey still took the 2 points. The Devils' precision was the story—they scored when it mattered most, in overtime, after squandering the volume advantage they'd built.

The model projects a 2.7–2.5 game with the Devils at 54% win probability. You're looking at the closest thing to a pick'em all season.

The Devils own the underlying play. They run 50.0% xG at 5v5 and 51.0% Corsi, exerting real territorial control. The Blackhawks sit at 42.0% xG and 46.0% Corsi—respectable for a visitor, but visibly in the weaker position. New Jersey should outshoot Chicago over 60 minutes.

What keeps this tight is process versus results. The Devils' PDO of 0.971 signals they're running cold—a gap from average built to close. The Blackhawks' 0.996 PDO is exactly league average, which means their record is tracking their underlying skill. That variance gap tightens the projection.

The Blackhawks land the rest advantage: three days to New Jersey's one. It's not decisive, but it's real.

Goaltending matters here. J. Markstrom plays on a back-to-back—watch for a backup start or a starter running on empty. A fresh blade in the crease flips the variance calc considerably.

New Jersey's attack rests on two wings operating at different altitudes. Timo Meier runs 1.08 xG/60 with 13 goals and 15 assists; he's posted 3 high-danger goals at a 6.7% shooting rate, slightly cool. Jack Hughes sits at 0.88 xG/60, 18 goals, 17 assists, and has buried 1 high-danger goal at an 11.5% clip—hot enough to matter. Chicago counters with Tyler Bertuzzi (0.85 xG/60, 20 goals, 15 assists, 7 high-danger goals, 18.0% shooting) and Connor Bedard (0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, 27 assists, 5 high-danger goals, 11.8% shooting). Bertuzzi is the more efficient finisher in this pairing. Bedard has produced 27 assists, a reliable playmaking element for Chicago's offense.

Where each team bleeds is predictable. New Jersey's back line has Johnathan Kovacevic as a weak link. Chicago's is Anton Frondell. Both are defensive liabilities that a sharp counterattack can exploit.

This game has skill distributed evenly enough that the outcome genuinely could go either way. Take 54% Devils if you trust underlying process. Take the Blackhawks if you believe one day of rest and Markstrom's potential fatigue matter more than 8 percentage points of xG difference.