Buffalo demolished Chicago 9–3 on a night when expected goals nearly evened — a 2.75–2.61 split that bore no resemblance to the final result.

The gap came from goaltending and execution. Chicago's A. Soderblom allowed 6.2 goals beyond expected, a collapse that essentially ended the game by the second intermission. Buffalo's U. Luukkonen offered the inverse: 100% on high-danger chances, a 0.870 save percentage (20 of 23 shots), and the difference between a tight game and a rout.

Buffalo's play extended beyond goaltending. They held 57% of shot attempts (31 on goal versus 23) and exploited rush chances ruthlessly — 7 goals on 27 rush attempts, a conversion rate that marks elite finishers. They also scored twice from low-danger spots, moments that separate luck from precision. Jacob Bryson's wrist shot from the doorstep at 16:22 of the third period exemplified their opportunism.

Chicago's offensive inefficiency compounded the goaltending problem. The Blackhawks generated five high-danger chances and scored on zero — a shutout on prime-real-estate opportunities that won't recur.

The model projects Buffalo at 59% win probability in a 2.4-2.9 game. The Sabres are the clear pick, even though their recent record masks their true level.

Chicago has looked sharper lately—6-2-2 in their last 10—but that's noise. Buffalo owns the underlying play decisively: 50.0% 5v5 xG to Chicago's 42.0%, a gap that compounds over 60 minutes. Corsi widens the margin, 49.0% to 46.0%, confirming the Sabres generate volume advantage, not variance.

Buffalo's 10-game slide (-12 goal differential) reads as doom until you factor PDO. Their 1.020 PDO means they've converted chances and received goaltending bounces at unsustainable rates. Chicago sits at 0.996, slightly underperforming their underlying play. Regression in Buffalo's direction is the default case—they don't need to improve; they need to normalize. Against Chicago's structural disadvantage in shot attempts and quality, that's the model's edge.

Ellis plays a back-to-back for Chicago. A tired starter or a forced backup call both tilt toward Buffalo.

Jason Zucker anchors Buffalo's attack at 1.07 xG/60 with 14 goals and 6 high-danger tallies. Josh Doan parallels at 1.01 xG/60 with 15 goals, a more balanced producer. Together they form Buffalo's volume threat.

Chicago counters with Tyler Bertuzzi at 0.85 xG/60 and 20 goals—high volume, high shooting at 18.0%. Connor Bedard runs 0.82 xG/60 with 17 goals but 11.8% shooting, suggesting he converts at his underlying rate rather than exceeding it. Chicago's offensive output is real, but margin-thin against Buffalo's underlying advantage.

The Sabres enter as favorites because they've built enough xG lead to weather variance. Chicago's hot form matters less than the math underneath. Buffalo's PDO regression plus their shot generation lead compound into the 59% call. That's the play.