The Kraken beat the Ducks 3–1 despite the Ducks generating 68% of expected goals. Seattle's goaltender stole the game.

Anaheim controlled 66% of shot attempts (41–21) and 68% of expected goals (5.41–2.57). They led 7–3 on high-danger chances. This was not a close game; the Ducks were the better team.

P. Grubauer stopped 40 of 41 shots at 0.976 save percentage, a +4.41 performance against expected. He saved all seven high-danger chances he faced. L. Dostal (ANA) managed 18 of 20 stops at 0.900 SV% with a +0.57 performance. The gap between them decided the game.

Anaheim's execution collapsed. They scored zero goals on seven high-danger chances and wasted 10 rebound opportunities. They underperformed their expected goals by 4.41 goals. One goaltender overrode everything Anaheim accomplished.

J. Eberle (SEA) scored twice in 18:07. K. Kakko (SEA) added two assists in 17:07. J. LaCombe (ANA) recorded one assist in 24:58.

The model projects a 2.4-2.8 goal game favoring Anaheim at 57% win probability. This edge lives in underlying play, not luck.

Anaheim dominates the underlying metrics. The Ducks generate 52.0% of expected goals at 5v5 to Seattle's 46.0%, and control 52.0% of shot attempts to the Kraken's 45.0%. That territorial edge matters over 60 minutes.

The Ducks are also the hotter team by points pace, winning 5-4-1 over their last 10. But form doesn't tell the full story. Anaheim sits at -7 goal differential in that span while Seattle is -18. Both teams are getting outshot or burned on execution — or both.

The real edge lies in PDO. Anaheim's 0.981 reflects genuinely cold shooting and/or goaltending; Seattle's 1.011 is softer ground. History says Anaheim regresses upward. This is how underlying play becomes actual play.

Both L. Dostal and J. Daccord are on back-to-backs — watch for a backup or a tired starter from either net.

Beckett Sennecke anchors Anaheim's offense with 20 goals, a 1.03 xG/60 rate, and 8 high-danger chances. Cutter Gauthier matches that edge at 0.99 xG/60 with 25 goals, though only 2 high-danger goals. For Seattle, Shane Wright (0.77 xG/60, 8 goals, 4 high-danger goals, 10.4% shooting) and Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, 5 high-danger goals, 8.8% shooting) carry the load.

Sennecke's high-danger volume and Gauthier's goal total both outpace Wright's 0.77 xG/60 and Catton's 0.68. The underlying play runs through Anaheim's top two.

The model's lean on Anaheim hinges on PDO regression. If the Ducks' cold shooting and goaltending normalize, underlying play becomes real play. Seattle's only path is stealing another tight result, but the Ducks' territorial advantage makes that unlikely.