The Maple Leafs held the underlying edge but lost 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals split 2.75–3.08, a 47–53 percent split favoring Toronto. The Islanders overperformed their xG by 1.25 goals. J. Woll simultaneously underperformed, surrendering 1.2 more than expected.

The shot volume tilt went New York's way: 54 percent of shot attempts (25–21 on goal). High-danger chances stayed even at 3–3. The rush game differentiated both offenses: New York scored 3 goals on 33 rush chances; Toronto scored 2 on 23.

M. Schaefer's snap shot from the high slot at 04:11 of overtime ended it. Woll finished 21 of 25 at 0.840 SV%. D. Rittich posted 0.857 on 18 of 21 stops.

Three Stars

• #13 M. Barzal (NYI) — 2A in 22:49
• #34 A. Matthews (TOR) — 2G in 22:29
• #48 M. Schaefer (NYI) — 2G in 22:11

This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a 2.5–2.7 xG game with the Islanders at 54% win probability.

The Islanders will control play. Their 49.0% Corsi to Toronto's 45.0% means expect the Leafs defending their own end for stretches. Toronto's 46.0% xG% to New York's 48.0% hints at better chance quality when they attack, but shot volume favors the Islanders. Neither team's PDO (Toronto 1.002, New York 0.993) suggests unsustainable luck — the game will likely play close to expectation.

D. Hildeby on a back-to-back bears watching. A backup start or a tired starter becomes a potential edge for Toronto's offense.

The forwards matchup shapes everything. Auston Matthews (1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 10.6% shooting) is Toronto's high-volume threat; John Tavares (0.91 xG/60, 15 goals, 24 assists, 12.4% shooting) adds further scoring depth. Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9 goals, 6.4% shooting) generates the Islanders' best chances but hasn't converted at volume. Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18 goals, 12.8% shooting) leads the Islanders in goals despite lower expected-goal generation than Lee.

Both teams sit at 0% for high-danger goals and 0% for rebound conversions — they don't score from scrambles or second chances.

Toronto's Bo Groulx and New York's Alexander Romanov represent each team's defensive vulnerability.

The Islanders have the edge. But in a game that hinges on possession versus efficiency, the gap is negligible.