D. Wolf stands tall as the Flames edge the Islanders
The Flames stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.64–3.73 and won anyway.
The underlying story
The Islanders dominated the expected-goals battle—controlling 55% of 5v5 xG at 4.64–3.73—yet lost 4–2. This was a goaltending heist.
D. Wolf (CGY) was the decisive factor. At 0.933 SV%, he made 28 saves on 30 shots and stopped 2.64 goals above expected. The Islanders created eight high-danger chances and converted zero; D. Wolf stopped all eight shots. That efficiency gap decided the game.
Calgary struck on 4 of 22 rush attempts; New York converted 2 of 34. The disparity was finishing, not volume.
New York out-shot Calgary 30–19, but volume mattered little. The Islanders underperformed their xG by 2.64 goals—the margin of defeat.
Anders Lee's wrist shot from a sharp angle (P3, 17:04) was New York's clearest chance, but Wolf denied it. D. Rittich (NYI) made 15 saves on 19 shots (0.789 SV%), respectable work in a losing effort.
The danger ladder
NYI went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
NYI finished -2.6 against expected, CGY +0.3 — D. Wolf (CGY) saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 2-for-30, CGY 3-for-19. CGY scored 4 of theirs off the rush.
- CGY won despite being outplayed by xG (45%). Goaltending or finishing carried them.
- D. Wolf (CGY) stopped 2.6 goals above expected.
- NYI couldn't convert — 0/8 on high-danger chances. That won't happen often.
- CGY was lethal off the rush — 4 goals on 22 rush chances.
- NYI was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 34 rush chances.
- NYI created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NYI underperformed xG by 2.6 — wasted quality chances.
- D. Wolf (CGY) saved 2.6 goals above expected — stole the show.
- D. Wolf was a wall on HD chances — 100% SV on 8 high-danger shots.