Wild pull away from the Maple Leafs
The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Minnesota's 6-3 win masked a closer shot battle: the Maple Leafs held 44% of shot attempts (30-39) yet scored just one-third of the goals. Expected goals (5.24-3.94, Minnesota 57%) explained the gap—Minnesota's shots were far more dangerous. The underlying numbers backed the blowout.
Toronto's goaltending split was decisive. D. Hildeby excelled: 1.000 SV% and 1.24 goals above expected marked an elite performance. J. Woll struggled: 24 saves on 29 shots (0.828 SV%, -1.00 vs expected) left him short of his chances. F. Gustavsson (MIN) was solid (0.900 SV%, +0.94 vs expected).
The rushing divergence was telling: Minnesota converted six of 29 rush attempts; Toronto managed two of 35. Minnesota's power play struck twice on 13 PP shots (1.00 xG). Toronto created three rebound chances and converted one; Minnesota generated 11 and converted none.
M. Foligno led with three goals. V. Tarasenko contributed two goals and one assist. Q. Hughes posted two assists.
The danger ladder
MIN went 3-for-22 from medium danger on 2.29 expected goals — 0.7 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
MIN finished +0.8 against expected, TOR -0.9 — D. Hildeby (TOR) saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 3-for-38, TOR 1-for-23. MIN scored 6 of theirs off the rush.
- D. Hildeby (TOR) stopped 1.2 goals above expected.
- Open game — 15 high-danger chances combined (TOR 8, MIN 7).
- TOR was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 35 rush chances.
- MIN was lethal off the rush — 6 goals on 29 rush chances.
- TOR created 3 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- MIN created 11 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- D. Hildeby (TOR) saved 5.2 goals above expected — stole the show.
- MIN power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 13 PP shots (1.00 xG).