Columbus stole this one. The Blue Jackets won 1-0 while surrendering a 70-30 expected-goals deficit—a margin so lopsided it borders on heist territory.

The culprit was goaltending and finishing. C. DeSmith's work in Dallas stopped 21 of 22, but the Stars' execution disintegrated when it mattered. They generated the higher-quality looks (0.058 xG per shot versus Columbus's 0.032) yet managed just 0 goals on 5 high-danger chances. That conversion rate won't persist.

J. Greaves was the antidote. The Blue Jackets goalie turned in a perfect night—28 saves, 1.000 SV%—stopping 3.53 goals above expected on shots where Dallas should have scored. The Stars threw everything at him, including 6 rebound chances, but Greaves would not budge.

Columbus manufactured almost nothing. It held 44% of shot attempts (22–28) but the chances weren't dangerous ones. What it did produce mattered: Zach Werenski's snap shot from the wing at 08:48 of the first period broke through and held up as the game-winner. D. Severson and I. Lundestrom assisted on a five-on-five goal sequence that proved just enough.

The Stars' inability to cash in their quality looks—particularly their dominance in high-danger situations—defined the outcome. They were the better team by nearly every process metric and still left with nothing.

This game has no clear edge. The model projects 2.4-2.6 goals and gives Columbus a 53% win probability—essentially a pick'em.

Dallas has the slightly hotter hand. The Stars' PDO of 1.024 suggests they're running above their sustainable performance level; regression typically follows. Columbus counters with a 1.003 PDO, closer to normal luck, and owns the territorial advantage: a 51.0% Corsi% versus Dallas's 47.0%, meaning the Blue Jackets will spend more time in the offensive half.

Both teams trade quality chances at nearly equal rates. Columbus edges Dallas 52.0% to 51.0% in expected goals percentage, a margin so thin it barely registers. Neither team excels at high-danger chances—both sit at 0% on HD goal rate and rebound goal rate, a red flag suggesting neither can consistently generate the shots that matter most.

The goaltending situation clouds further. Both J. Greaves and J. Oettinger are on the back-to-back, creating uncertainty about whether either will start or, if they do, how sharp they'll be. Fatigue often affects rhythm in net more than raw competence.

Where Dallas tries to win: Jason Robertson carries a 0.96 xG/60 and has posted 25 goals and 21 assists with a 12.4% shooting clip and 2 high-danger goals—elite threat level. Michael Bunting (0.83 xG/60, 8 goals, 7.6% shooting) provides secondary scoring punch. Columbus will need to neutralize Robertson; he's the most dangerous weapon on the ice.

Where Columbus goes for the victory: Boone Jenner (0.98 xG/60, 11 goals, 21 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 9.6% shooting) creates at a similar rate to Robertson with a lower conversion rate—still dangerous. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals, 13.3% shooting) represents an upside shot: fewer assists than Jenner but a higher shooting percentage that could explode.

Dallas's defense will be tested at Tyler Myers. Columbus's at Conor Garland. This truly is a pick'em. The slight territorial edge tilts toward Columbus, but Dallas's hot streak and elite forward talent keep it even. Whoever wins will have escaped with it, not dominated.