The underlying hockey favored Calgary. The Flames carried a 4.83–4.77 expected-goals edge and generated one more high-danger chance (5–4), yet Anaheim won anyway. L. Dostal saved 2.83 goals above expectation—a performance so dominant it overcame Calgary's better luck on the rush (two goals off 35 chances).

The surface metrics split nearly even. Anaheim held 51–49 on shot attempts (36–34 on goal), but Calgary squandered its opportunities: zero goals on five high-danger chances. Anaheim crashed the net more efficiently, converting one of ten rebound opportunities while Calgary converted zero from six.

D. Cooley matched Dostal's excellence, saving 2.77 goals above expected. Both keepers outplayed their xG models by nearly three goals—so lopsided a goaltending matchup rarely produces a clear winner. Mason McTavish's wrist shot from the doorstep in the shootout decided it.

C. Gauthier scored twice in 20:33, J. LaCombe added an assist in 25:07, and K. Bahl assisted in 22:49.

The model projects a 2.5–2.9 goal spread favoring Anaheim, with the Ducks holding 57% win probability. The prediction hinges on Anaheim's territorial dominance and Calgary's luck running dry.

Anaheim has earned this lean. The Ducks have posted an 8-2-0 record over their last ten games, out-shooting Calgary in the underlying metrics across the board. At 5v5, Anaheim generates 52.0% expected goals and controls 52.0% of shot volume—the kind of sustained advantage that typically predicts outcomes. Calgary sits at 47.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi, a frame that corresponds with their -5 goal differential over the same ten-game stretch.

The regression angle matters more than the headline numbers suggest. Both teams are running cold on PDO—Calgary at 0.985, Anaheim at 0.981. But the upside diverges. Anaheim, generating 52.0% expected goals, has room to improve toward their underlying output. Calgary, at 47.0% xG, faces a narrower ceiling even with positive regression.

The matchup tilts toward Anaheim on depth. Blake Coleman leads Calgary's scoring at 16 goals and 12 assists with a 0.89 expected goals-per-60 rate, backed by 11.4% shooting efficiency and 2 high-danger chances converted. Matt Coronato adds depth at 10 goals and 16 assists (0.80 xG/60, 6.6% shooting), though he represents Calgary's defensive liability. On the other side, Beckett Sennecke (1.03 xG/60, 20 goals, 19 assists, 8 HD goals, 13.5% shooting) is Anaheim's primary engine, while Cutter Gauthier (0.99 xG/60, 25 goals, 16 assists, 2 HD goals, 12.9% shooting) adds a complementary scoring threat.

Calgary's task is to neutralize Sennecke's scoring pressure while preventing Gauthier from exploiting Mason McTavish's defensive vulnerabilities on the opposite end. Anaheim can exploit Coronato on Calgary's back line.

One tactical wrinkle: L. Dostal appears headed for a back-to-back assignment. Monitor Anaheim's goaltender workload—a tired starter or a switch to the backup would materially shift the projection.

The Ducks have the model's edge. Expect territorial control and a likely ANA victory.