The Senators won 7–4 with the underlying numbers confirming their dominance: they controlled 68% of 5v5 expected goals (5.23–2.46). The striking metric, though, was chance conversion. Ottawa overperformed their xG by 1.77 goals; San Jose overperformed theirs by 1.54. Both teams finished above their expected tallies.

The structure of that dominance mattered more than volume. Ottawa held 52% of shot attempts (25–23 on goal), a modest edge, but their chances were dangerous: 8 high-danger opportunities to San Jose's 2. That quality gap—0.078 xG per shot versus 0.055—meant Ottawa didn't need a heavy volume advantage to control the game.

Ottawa's power play weaponized that edge. Two goals on eight shots (0.35 xG) gave the Senators a special-teams cushion that San Jose couldn't close. On the rush, Ottawa was lethal: six goals on 33 rush chances. San Jose generated three on 20 attempts, suggesting they had the structural opportunities but not the finish.

Goaltending amplified the gap. L. Ullmark (OTT) made 19 saves on 23 shots (0.826 SV%), steadying Ottawa through a workload their defense couldn't fully contain. L. Brossoit (SJS) stopped 18 of 23 (0.783 SV%), a workmanlike performance betrayed by the shot volume and danger his team faced. The margin wasn't enormous, but in a game where both teams exceeded their expected-goal totals, marginal advantages in save percentage converted to goals.

The model projects a tight 2.2-2.7 game favoring Ottawa, which earns a 59% win probability. That lean rests entirely on underlying dominance.

Ottawa controls the puck at 56.0% expected goals share versus San Jose's 48.0%. The gap extends to shot volume—53.0% Corsi for the Senators means the game tilts toward the Sharks' end. San Jose will defend most of the night.

Both teams own nearly identical PDO (Ottawa 0.993, San Jose 0.998), so neither has stolen wins through outscoring or underscoring its chances. Goaltending becomes the wildcard. L. Ullmark skates on a back-to-back for San Jose, as does A. Nedeljkovic for Ottawa. Either or both could see a backup, or a starter running on empty.

The sharpness lives in skill. For San Jose, Pavol Regenda generates 1.10 expected goals per 60 minutes with 5 goals and 1 assist, converting at 16.1% with 2 high-danger chances. Igor Chernyshov sits at 0.91 xG/60 with 6 goals, 8 assists, and 1 high-danger chance, converting at 15.0%. Ottawa's Brady Tkachuk surpasses both—1.19 xG/60 with 11 goals and 20 assists at 7.5% shooting and 2 high-danger chances. Dylan Cozens trails slightly at 1.00 xG/60 with 13 goals and 15 assists at 9.5% shooting and 1 high-danger chance.

San Jose's task: neutralize Tkachuk's offensive load and keep Cozens off the scoreboard. For Ottawa, stopping Regenda's dangerous looks and Chernyshov's production matters. The asymmetry in defensive burden reflects the model's read—Ottawa creates more, San Jose defends more.

The verdict is clear: the Senators. Their territorial and efficiency edge justifies the lean.