Montreal's surface metrics—52% shot attempts, 7–7 high-danger chances—belied a 4–3 loss driven entirely by finishing. The Canadiens converted none of their most dangerous looks. L. Dostal stopped all seven high-danger shots against him. That was the difference.

Expected goals split 4.33–4.73 in Anaheim's favor, suggesting a near-even game. Montreal underperformed their xG by 1.33 goals—a miss that, when plotted against Dostal's perfect high-danger defense, explains the result. Both teams were equally efficient from the rush (Montreal 3 goals on 30 chances, Anaheim 3 on 29), but Montreal's inability to finish from the slot and off rebounds eliminated any advantage from controlling play.

Cutter Gauthier's snap shot from the slot (P3, 17:30) exemplified Anaheim's precision in the areas that mattered. The Ducks underperformed their xG by 0.73 goals overall, yet when it counted—close to the net—they finished. Dostal's perfection at short range made Anaheim's otherwise modest performance sufficient.

The model projects a 2.7-2.6 Ducks win with Anaheim at 52% probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim's edges at 5v5 are clear but modest. The Ducks own 52.0% xG and 52.0% Corsi, which means they should control territory. Montreal sits at 48.0% xG and 49.0% Corsi—behind in both underlying metrics.

Regression risk cuts both ways. Montreal's PDO is 1.018, suggesting they've gotten lucky and are due for some negative variance. Anaheim's is 0.981, indicating they've been unlucky and should see positive regression. In a game this tight, both matter.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. J. Dobes and V. Husso are both on back-to-backs, so expect either backup starts or tired starters.

Cole Caufield carries Montreal's scoring: 33G, 0.97 xG/60, 20.0% shooting efficiency. Oliver Kapanen (19G, 0.83 xG/60, 17.8% shooting) provides depth.

Anaheim's scoring tandem is Beckett Sennecke (1.03 xG/60, 20G 19A, 8 high-danger goals, 13.5% shooting) and Cutter Gauthier (25G, 0.99 xG/60, 12.9% shooting). Both generate volume and convert at high rates.

Defensively, Montreal must contain Gauthier while Anaheim locks down Caufield. Mike Matheson is Montreal's weak link; Mason McTavish is Anaheim's.

Neither team breaks through in the hard areas—both register 0% high-danger goal rates and 0% rebound conversion. Puck control and goaltending resilience will decide this.

The Ducks own the underlying play and hold a regression edge. But the model has already accounted for both, which explains the narrow 52% projection.