Canadiens run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Montreal's 7-3 victory over the Islanders represented a clean sweep across every quality metric: they controlled 66% of 5v5 expected goals (4.88–2.55), held 62% of shot attempts, and finished 2.12 goals above their xG projection. That overperformance revealed elite execution.
The Canadiens' dominance began with shot quality. They generated chances at 0.073 xG per shot compared to New York's 0.051—a gap that compounded across every situation. On the rush, that difference meant five Montreal goals on 30 chances versus two New York goals on 21. On the power play, Montreal's 3 goals on 8 shots (1.05 xG) represented clinical efficiency; high volume plus high percentage is the blueprint for routs.
Goaltending validated Montreal's control. I. Sorokin (NYI) posted a 0.812 save percentage, 1.66 goals below expected on 26 shots—a betrayal of the workload he faced. J. Fowler (MTL) recorded a 0.864 save percentage, anchoring the line.
Cole Caufield's snap shot from a sharp angle (P3, 14:59) didn't decide the game; Montreal had already done that through structure and execution.
The danger ladder
MTL went 5-for-24 from medium danger on 2.92 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
NYI finished +0.5 against expected, MTL +2.1 — I. Sorokin (NYI) allowed 1.7 more goals than expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-19, MTL 5-for-33. MTL scored 5 of theirs off the rush.
- I. Sorokin (NYI) gave up 1.7 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- MTL generated far more dangerous chances — 0.073 xG/shot vs 0.051. Quality over quantity.
- NYI scored 2 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
- MTL was lethal off the rush — 5 goals on 30 rush chances.
- NYI was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 21 rush chances.
- MTL created 6 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- MTL outperformed their expected goals by 2.1 — elite finishing or lucky bounces.
- D. Rittich (NYI) saved 3.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
- MTL power play was dominant — 3 PPG on 8 PP shots (1.05 xG).