Senators run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Ottawa's 5-2 win over Toronto understates their dominance—the Senators controlled 76% of 5v5 expected goals (6.61–2.08). This level of offensive control made even their lopsided scoreline feel close relative to the underlying production.
The Senators held 76% of shot attempts (44–14) and generated 9 high-danger chances to Toronto's 5. Yet they underperformed their xG by 1.61 goals while J. Woll, the Leafs' goalie, saved 1.61 above expected on 39 stops. Two of Ottawa's goals came from low-danger spots a goaltender should have stopped. The Senators' efficiency came through execution on the rush (3 goals from 45 chances) and crashing the net (2 rebounds converted from 6 created). Toronto converted 1 rebound from 3 attempts.
L. Ullmark (OTT) made 12 saves on 14 shots.
The danger ladder
OTT went 1-for-9 from high danger on 2.90 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
TOR finished -0.1 against expected, OTT -1.6 — J. Woll (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: TOR went 2-for-13, OTT 3-for-42. OTT scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- J. Woll (TOR) stopped 1.6 goals above expected.
- OTT generated far more dangerous chances — 0.091 xG/shot vs 0.063. Quality over quantity.
- OTT scored 2 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
- OTT was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 45 rush chances.
- OTT created 6 rebound opportunities (2 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- TOR created 3 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- OTT underperformed xG by 1.6 — wasted quality chances.
- J. Woll (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.