Montreal won 2-1 despite Columbus controlling the game on paper. The Blue Jackets out-generated Montreal on expected goals 3.76–2.19, out-attempted them 26–20, and created nine high-danger chances versus three. Columbus scored once. This was a goaltending heist.

J. Dobes (MTL) stole the game. His 2.76 goals saved above expected—a measure of how much better he performed than league average—tells the story: elite goaltending against a team that couldn't finish. A 0.962 save percentage and nine-for-nine on high-danger chances sealed it. J. Greaves (CBJ) posted 0.900, solid work buried by Columbus's wasteful execution.

Z. Bolduc (MTL) scored at 4:36 on a snap shot from a sharp angle—the turning point. Montreal finished ruthlessly, converting two chances off seventeen rush attempts. Columbus crashed the net for four rebound opportunities but left them empty.

This outcome is a variance outlier for Columbus. They won't regularly squander this many high-danger looks, and their 2.76-goal shortfall versus expected output will regress. But not tonight—Montreal's precision and Dobes's brilliance converted dominance into defeat.

The model calls it a coin flip: the Blue Jackets project as a 51% favorite in a 2.6–2.5 game. The underlying shot metrics support the near-dead heat.

Columbus dominates the underlying play with 52.0% expected goals to Montreal's 48.0% and 51.0% Corsi to 49.0%. The gap is modest, but consistent—enough to matter over time, not enough to guarantee anything on a given night. When two teams are this close, individual performances determine outcomes.

Montreal's PDO of 1.018 signals a team that's converting at an above-sustainable clip. Columbus, at 1.003, runs neutral. The Canadiens are due for regression.

Boone Jenner is Columbus's engine: 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, 11 goals, 21 assists, shooting at 9.6%—well above average. Two of his goals come from high-danger areas. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals) provides secondary offensive pressure.

Montreal counters with Cole Caufield, a 33-goal scorer shooting 20.0%—elite efficiency. He has just 1 high-danger goal, suggesting his volume comes from sound shot selection and positioning rather than time spent in the hard areas. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 4 high-danger) offers more tactically dangerous scoring, with his output rooted in proximity.

Defensively, Conor Garland is Columbus's weak point; Mike Matheson fills that role for Montreal. Neither team has clearly superior goaltending or special teams to break the tie.

Two possession-dominant teams, one moderately hot Canadiens offense, and nothing decisive in how they generate or prevent danger. Heads.