Lightning hold off the Senators
The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Andrei Vasilevskiy's 0.929 save percentage decided this game. The Lightning beat the Senators 4-2, with Vasilevskiy posting 1.77 goals above expected on 26 of 28 saves. J. Reimer was 0.94 above expected on 23 of 27 but couldn't match that performance.
The underlying metrics mostly backed Tampa. They controlled 57% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.94–3.77), though the Senators had more high-danger chances (8–6). The Senators generated looks but couldn't convert: they underperformed their expected goals by 1.77, scoring 2 on 3.77 xG. The Lightning underperformed theirs by 0.94 but still posted 4.
Tampa's efficiency on the rush amplified the gap: 4 goals on 33 chances. The Senators crashed the net—6 rebound opportunities, 1 converted. That imbalance, paired with Vasilevskiy's brilliance, decided the outcome.
Jake Guentzel's wrist shot from the high slot at 17:48 of the second period was the turning point.
The danger ladder
OTT went 0-for-11 from medium danger on 1.15 expected goals — 1.1 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
OTT finished -1.8 against expected, TBL -0.9 — A. Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: OTT went 0-for-23, TBL 0-for-22. TBL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.
- A. Vasilevskiy (TBL) stopped 1.8 goals above expected.
- TBL was lethal off the rush — 4 goals on 33 rush chances.
- TBL created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- OTT created 6 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- OTT underperformed xG by 1.8 — wasted quality chances.
- A. Vasilevskiy (TBL) saved 1.8 goals above expected — stole the show.