Montreal held 40% of shot attempts but fell 5-2. The gap between shot share and goal share exposed just how thoroughly Columbus dominated underlying play.

The Blue Jackets controlled 61% of 5v5 expected goals (4.69–3.01). Their offensive pressure was relentless: they created 10 high-danger chances to Montreal's 2. Columbus converted 4 of 31 rush chances while Montreal scored 2 on 25 attempts.

J. Greaves (CBJ) stopped 1.01 goals above expected. J. Dobes (MTL) posted a 0.848 save percentage.

C. Coyle's snap shot from the doorstep (P3, 09:59) broke the game open. He finished with 2 goals in 21:53. K. Marchenko added 1G, 1A in 17:12. A. Fantilli contributed 2A in 15:41. Montreal underperformed their xG by 1.01 goals.

The model projects a 2.6–2.5 Blue Jackets victory with Columbus at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Montreal arrives hotter: 9–1–0 in their last 10 games. Columbus is underwater at -15 goal differential over the same stretch. Yet the underlying metrics favor Columbus. At 5v5, the Jackets control 52.0% expected goal share to Montreal's 48.0%, and 51.0% Corsi to 49.0%. Montreal's PDO of 1.018 explains the disconnect—they're running hot, and regression should follow.

Boone Jenner leads Columbus's attack with 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes and 11 goals on 9.6% shooting. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals) complements him, though he hasn't played in 13 days. Cole Caufield powers Montreal with 33 goals at 0.97 xG/60 and 20.0% shooting, backed by Oliver Kapanen (19 goals, 0.83 xG/60, 17.8% shooting).

The outcome turns on finishes. Columbus dominates possession and shot quality but lacks rebound production. Conor Garland represents the Jackets' defensive soft spot; Mike Matheson is Montreal's. Neither team's advantage is large enough to overcome the other's strengths.