Detroit's 3-1 victory masked a shot-attempt deficit: the Red Wings held just 28 shots to Montreal's 33 but controlled 56% of five-on-five expected goals (4.42–3.41).

The underlying advantage ran deeper. Detroit generated far more dangerous looks—0.069 expected goals per shot versus Montreal's 0.052—and converted three of seven high-danger chances. Montreal produced only four such opportunities and finished 0-for-4 in that zone. Detroit also thrived on the rush, converting twice on 22 attempts.

Montreal's goaltending couldn't hold back the tide. J. Dobes stopped 25 of 27 shots (0.926 save percentage) but still underperformed his expected outcome by 2.41 goals—he was asked to do too much against superior shot quality. Detroit's J. Gibson made 32 of 33 saves at 0.970, exceeding expectations by 2.41.

The turning point came in the third period when Andrew Copp's wrist shot from the slot found the back of the net at 19:43.

Both teams underperformed their expected-goal totals—Detroit by 1.42 goals, Montreal by 2.41—but the Canadiens' larger variance gap underscored their inability to punish Detroit's few mistakes.

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Detroit at 53% win probability—close enough to a true toss-up that most bettors would skip it.

Montreal and Detroit post identical Corsi% at 49.0%, meaning shot volume is split down the middle. Their expected goal shares sit within a percentage point: MTL 48.0% xG%, DET 49.0% xG%.

The only separation emerges from PDO. Montreal's 1.018 mark indicates the Canadiens are running hot; that spike historically precedes regression. Detroit's 0.985 sits closer to equilibrium.

Cole Caufield anchors Montreal's scoring with 33 goals and 16 assists while generating 0.97 xG per 60 minutes at a 20.0% shooting rate—elite on both counts. Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat's 0.88 xG/60, backed by 17 goals, 28 assists, and a 9.0% shooting clip. Caufield's generation outpaces DeBrincat's, but DeBrincat's playmaking gives him broader impact.

Oliver Kapanen deepens Montreal's depth at 0.83 xG/60 with 19 goals, 12 assists, and a 17.8% shooting rate elevated by four high-danger goals. Marco Kasper anchors Detroit's third line at 0.81 xG/60, but with only 7 goals and 8 assists at 6.1% shooting, he's more setup than finisher.

Neither team generates meaningful high-danger goals or rebounds—both sit at 0% in those categories. That neutralizes the conventional depth advantage. Mike Matheson is Montreal's defensive liability; Axel Sandin-Pellikka drags Detroit's back end.

The model isn't wrong to see this as a true toss-up. The numbers support that skepticism completely.