The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Taylor Hall – Mark Jankowski – Eric RobinsonTogether this unit controls play outright — 68% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.126 min together 59 +9 → proj 6868.0%· obs.
- 02Nikolaj Ehlers – Sebastian Aho – Andrei SvechnikovTogether this unit controls play outright — 61% of expected goals, 6 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.85 min together 55 +6 → proj 6161.0%· obs.
- 03Jordan Staal – Jordan Martinook – William CarrierTogether this unit controls play outright — 57% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.296 min together 56 +1 → proj 5757.0%· obs.
- 01Mike Reilly – Joel NystromTogether this unit controls play outright — 69% of expected goals, 36 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.111 min together 33 +36 → proj 6969.0%· obs.
- 02Shayne Gostisbehere – Sean WalkerTogether this unit controls play outright — 62% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.116 min together 37 +25 → proj 6262.0%· obs.
- 03Jaccob Slavin – Jalen ChatfieldTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.513 min together 31 +24 → proj 5555.0%· obs.