The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Jesper Bratt – Nico Hischier – Jack HughesTogether this unit controls play outright — 61% of expected goals, 8 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.100 min together 53 +8 → proj 6161.0%· obs.
- 02Cody Glass – Arseny Gritsyuk – Lenni HameenahoTogether this unit controls play outright — 60% of expected goals, 11 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.124 min together 49 +11 → proj 6060.0%· obs.
- 03Nick Bjugstad – Paul Cotter – Maxim TsyplakovTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 41% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.103 min together 43 -2 → proj 4141.0%· obs.
- 01Johnathan Kovacevic – Luke HughesTogether this unit controls play outright — 56% of expected goals, 26 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.234 min together 30 +26 → proj 5656.0%· obs.
- 02Brenden Dillon – Dougie HamiltonTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.109 min together 30 +25 → proj 5555.0%· obs.
- 03Jonas Siegenthaler – Simon NemecTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 42% of expected goals, 15 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.168 min together 27 +15 → proj 4242.0%· obs.