The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Dylan Larkin – Alex DeBrincat – Lucas RaymondTogether this unit controls play outright — 71% of expected goals, 22 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.75 min together 49 +22 → proj 7171.0%· obs.
- 02James van Riemsdyk – J.T. Compher – Michael RasmussenTogether this unit plays about even — 49% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.98 min together 46 +3 → proj 4949.0%· obs.
- 01Jacob Bernard-Docker – Moritz SeiderTogether this unit controls play outright — 66% of expected goals, 37 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.104 min together 29 +37 → proj 6666.0%· obs.
- 02Albert Johansson – Axel Sandin-PellikkaTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, 33 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.124 min together 25 +33 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Ben Chiarot – Justin FaulkTogether this unit spends the night chasing — 47% of expected goals, 20 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.249 min together 27 +20 → proj 4747.0%· obs.