The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Jordan Kyrou – Robert Thomas – Jake NeighboursTogether this unit controls play outright — 76% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.79 min together 53 +24 → proj 7676.0%· obs.
- 02Jonatan Berggren – Dalibor Dvorsky – Otto StenbergTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 38% of expected goals, 5 points WORSE than the talent predicts — worse together than apart.89 min together 43 -5 → proj 3838.0%· obs.
- 03Oskar Sundqvist – Nathan Walker – Alexey ToropchenkoTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 37% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.123 min together 39 -2 → proj 3737.0%· obs.
- 01Cam Fowler – Tyler TuckerTogether this unit tilts the ice — 53% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.127 min together 29 +24 → proj 5353.0%· obs.
- 02Colton Parayko – Theo LindsteinTogether this unit tilts the ice — 53% of expected goals, 18 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.226 min together 35 +18 → proj 5353.0%· obs.
- 03Philip Broberg – Logan MaillouxTogether this unit spends the night chasing — 46% of expected goals, 17 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.368 min together 29 +17 → proj 4646.0%· obs.