The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Kevin Fiala – Alex Turcotte – Andrei KuzmenkoTogether this unit controls play outright — 65% of expected goals, 11 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.145 min together 54 +11 → proj 6565.0%· obs.
- 02Jeff Malott – Samuel Helenius – Taylor WardTogether this unit controls play outright — 64% of expected goals, 7 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.144 min together 57 +7 → proj 6464.0%· obs.
- 03Joel Armia – Scott Laughton – Jared WrightTogether this unit controls play outright — 61% of expected goals, 11 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.103 min together 50 +11 → proj 6161.0%· obs.
- 04Trevor Moore – Quinton Byfield – Alex LaferriereTogether this unit controls play outright — 57% of expected goals, 3 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.284 min together 54 +3 → proj 5757.0%· obs.
- 01Drew Doughty – Mikey AndersonTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.911 min together 31 +24 → proj 5555.0%· obs.
- 02Joel Edmundson – Brandt ClarkeTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 19 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.1004 min together 33 +19 → proj 5252.0%· obs.
- 03Brian Dumoulin – Cody CeciTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.770 min together 28 +24 → proj 5252.0%· obs.